Predictable Plots: How do people do it??

When asking friends and family about a certain film that we've watched or a book that they've read, some of them usually reply with a complaint of the narratives predictable plot.

"You can see the ending from a mile away!!" a critic once complained.

Seriously. How do people do this. There's something seriously wrong with me because no matter what I do, whenever I try to foretell a story's ending, using hints and clues from the scenes that precede it, I always get it wrong. Except for Slumdog Millionaire but that doesn't count.

Even while watching a movie that shows a plethora of cliches, I still tell myself, that maybe, just maybe this movie will be different? I have faith that it will not end the way it should. That it will break the formula, subvert the genre, turn it on its head. So when I predict the plot my mind usually thinks up the most ridiculous conclusion.
90 percent of the time I'm wrong and can't help feeling guilty for my incompetence to play psychic, but still I cling on to the Hope.
The Hope that the writers of this movie or tv show or whatever will think that "hmmm we should do something different. Make them think this way, then boom hit them with a plot twist. They'll never predict this!"
This has only happened to me a few times, when my ridiculous conclusion is correct and other people are impressed by the ending that they "could have never predicted".

But unfortunately most of the time my prediction is wrong, and it means the movie sucks.